18-05-2013, 12:36 PM
Absolutely no doubt about it. I have conducted analysis on his games, i've pasted below what i posted on another forum...
I carried out a standard 3-line analysis using Houdini 3 at 25 ply. I arrived at 25 ply because of the time controls, it would be around that point that a decent modern laptop could generate the analysis in that time.
Opening moves are excluded from the analysis, they are considered theory, so are ignored for this purpose.
Borislav Ivanov's performance in the whole of the Zadar tournament looks like this:-
Analysis Houdini 3 Pro x64, 1024 hash, 25 ply:-
{Top 1 match: 222/294 (75.5%)}
{Top 2 match: 251/294 (85.4%)}
{Top 3 match: 268/294 (91.2%)}
Similar analysis carried out on Magnus Carlsen's performance at the 75th Tata Steel:-
{Top 1 match: 311/512 (60.7%)}
{Top 2 match: 404/512 (78.9%)}
{Top 3 match: 443/512 (86.5%)}.
So he out-performed Carlsen by quite some margin, but let's take a look at Ivanov's performance in closer detail...
In round 8 the broadcast was removed, when suspicions were raised about his performance. He couldn't have cheated in this round, and went on to lose it.
In round 2 there was undoubtedly time-pressure issues, but without actually witnessing the game myself, i can only guess as to how much that played a part. The analysied moves from round 2, because it was such a long game, make up 36% of the total from the tournament. If we remove rounds 2 and 8 from the analysis, the figures are thus:-
{Top 1 match: 140/165 (84.8%)}
{Top 2 match: 152/165 (92.1%)}
{Top 3 match: 159/165 (96.4%)}.
Now, i know there will still be one or two of you who are still not convinced by this, i decided to take a closer look at the moves where Ivanov didn't make Houdini's first choice move.
I found that the moves he made were often in fact the top choice for Houdini when viewed at a different ply from my original analysis, in all cases, within just a few ply.
With rounds 2 and 8 removed (i saw no need to look at these games for this purpose), the figures are:-
{Top 1 match: 158/165 (95.8%)}
{Top 2 match: 159/165 (96.4%)}
{Top 3 match: 161/165 (97.6%)}.
Anyone who still doesn't believe he was cheating is just naive.
My analysis, where it met the threshold, and where it hasn't since been superseded, is stored on the Fritz cloud. I have also uploaded a small database (48kb) containing all the games and stored analysis for anyone who wants to check it here:- <!-- m --><a class="postlink" href="http://www.sendspace.com/file/64cmjz">http://www.sendspace.com/file/64cmjz</a><!-- m -->
I carried out a standard 3-line analysis using Houdini 3 at 25 ply. I arrived at 25 ply because of the time controls, it would be around that point that a decent modern laptop could generate the analysis in that time.
Opening moves are excluded from the analysis, they are considered theory, so are ignored for this purpose.
Borislav Ivanov's performance in the whole of the Zadar tournament looks like this:-
Analysis Houdini 3 Pro x64, 1024 hash, 25 ply:-
{Top 1 match: 222/294 (75.5%)}
{Top 2 match: 251/294 (85.4%)}
{Top 3 match: 268/294 (91.2%)}
Similar analysis carried out on Magnus Carlsen's performance at the 75th Tata Steel:-
{Top 1 match: 311/512 (60.7%)}
{Top 2 match: 404/512 (78.9%)}
{Top 3 match: 443/512 (86.5%)}.
So he out-performed Carlsen by quite some margin, but let's take a look at Ivanov's performance in closer detail...
In round 8 the broadcast was removed, when suspicions were raised about his performance. He couldn't have cheated in this round, and went on to lose it.
In round 2 there was undoubtedly time-pressure issues, but without actually witnessing the game myself, i can only guess as to how much that played a part. The analysied moves from round 2, because it was such a long game, make up 36% of the total from the tournament. If we remove rounds 2 and 8 from the analysis, the figures are thus:-
{Top 1 match: 140/165 (84.8%)}
{Top 2 match: 152/165 (92.1%)}
{Top 3 match: 159/165 (96.4%)}.
Now, i know there will still be one or two of you who are still not convinced by this, i decided to take a closer look at the moves where Ivanov didn't make Houdini's first choice move.
I found that the moves he made were often in fact the top choice for Houdini when viewed at a different ply from my original analysis, in all cases, within just a few ply.
With rounds 2 and 8 removed (i saw no need to look at these games for this purpose), the figures are:-
{Top 1 match: 158/165 (95.8%)}
{Top 2 match: 159/165 (96.4%)}
{Top 3 match: 161/165 (97.6%)}.
Anyone who still doesn't believe he was cheating is just naive.
My analysis, where it met the threshold, and where it hasn't since been superseded, is stored on the Fritz cloud. I have also uploaded a small database (48kb) containing all the games and stored analysis for anyone who wants to check it here:- <!-- m --><a class="postlink" href="http://www.sendspace.com/file/64cmjz">http://www.sendspace.com/file/64cmjz</a><!-- m -->