07-09-2016, 04:46 PM
I have also been struggling to understand why some of the better players have been so worried they would inevitably lose rating points in these events. The top players have high expected scores because they are that much better than the field they encounter. By all means when an underrated junior is met the expected score may be higher than the true strength gap between the players. (That problem would of course be reduced by a regular programme of FIDE rated games throughout the year by which junior players are more likely to get to a rating which reflects their strength ie you need more events rated not less.) For games between established adults the expected scores should be correct. Since the maximum gap in the FIDE system is set at 400 the expected scores will in some cases be too low. All the information about how the top players got on is available for a manual trawl through the data.
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