08-09-2016, 05:27 PM
steve smith Wrote:The grading system is based on a set of probabilities regarding the results of games between players with various grading differences. In theory, playing a lot of players with much lower grades gives a large number of small grading gains combined with an occasional large grading drop, but with an overall neutral outcome. From earlier contributions to this thread it's clear that there are people who don't believe the assumptions behind the calculations are correct.
Does FIDE or any other body carry out regular research to compare actual results with the outcomes predicted by theory?
Last time I saw any analysis of CS grading data the fit was reasonable.
But a reality check is needed here.
No grading system is perfect.
But they usually provide the best mathematical treatment available.
Lets hope selectors use the published grading data wisely - plus any unpublished data they have access too.
It is always a difficult job to do.