11-01-2013, 08:11 PM
My issue with all this is that nothing has been proven. The guy has played exceptionally well but it is not impossible for players to play 400+ above their rating as has already been mentioned Alan has done so.
So often in life we are easily deceived by false statistics - often because they are incorrect. If the odds PRIOR to an event are 1 in 10,000 that a specific player scores as this player did then if you are looking with hindsight you are really asking the question what are the odds of ANY 2200+ player putting in such a performance. If there are 1000 such players playing 10 events a year then the odds are 1 i.e. a certainty.
A similar situation arose in connection with the New York lottery when one lady one it twice in one year (or some short period) and the newspapers focused on it saying that the odds of anybody winning it once were so poor that to win it twice must be impossible and something fishy must have happened. As it happened a statistician investigated it and based on the simple fact that any one winning the lottery twice would be newsworthy i.e. it did not have to be a specified person who only played the game those two times, they forecast that the odds for a winner to win a second time were not insignificant and subsequent studies of past results proved this to be correct.
Someone has done an analysis of his games and, having found excuses to ignore the games he lost, states that a high percentage of his moves are the top candidate moves for a certain engine. This is meant to be proof of cheating. Has anyone done a similar comparison with other players to see how their move % compares and whether players who have a hot event appear engine like?
My concern here is that a player's name is being pulled through the mud based on nothing more than poor statistics. He may be guilty but produce some actual evidence, not gossip.
So often in life we are easily deceived by false statistics - often because they are incorrect. If the odds PRIOR to an event are 1 in 10,000 that a specific player scores as this player did then if you are looking with hindsight you are really asking the question what are the odds of ANY 2200+ player putting in such a performance. If there are 1000 such players playing 10 events a year then the odds are 1 i.e. a certainty.
A similar situation arose in connection with the New York lottery when one lady one it twice in one year (or some short period) and the newspapers focused on it saying that the odds of anybody winning it once were so poor that to win it twice must be impossible and something fishy must have happened. As it happened a statistician investigated it and based on the simple fact that any one winning the lottery twice would be newsworthy i.e. it did not have to be a specified person who only played the game those two times, they forecast that the odds for a winner to win a second time were not insignificant and subsequent studies of past results proved this to be correct.
Someone has done an analysis of his games and, having found excuses to ignore the games he lost, states that a high percentage of his moves are the top candidate moves for a certain engine. This is meant to be proof of cheating. Has anyone done a similar comparison with other players to see how their move % compares and whether players who have a hot event appear engine like?
My concern here is that a player's name is being pulled through the mud based on nothing more than poor statistics. He may be guilty but produce some actual evidence, not gossip.