21-06-2013, 04:26 PM
Quote:However, to climb from 1500 to 1600 in a single season, one will almost certainly have to have performed consistently higher than 1600 to do it.
Not necessarily - play at 1600 for 30 games starting at 1500 and you end up at 1602, if the grading calculator is to be believed. High climbers tend to be more active as well, which means that their performance is going to tend to approximate whatever grade they end up at.
I think it's always going to be a case-by-case decision there. Someone who's basically been winning Majors isn't necessarily going to be as well equipped as someone who's maintained a 1900 grade for a year in Opens, but on the other hand they might be on the sort of upward curve that is clearly continuing. On the other hand, they might be about to revert to the mean!
The flipside of the 'confidence' point is that the player with the more static grade is probably more experienced at dealing with strong opposition - and indeed with setbacks, which is an important mental skill to have when playing for Scotland. I'd strongly argue against either the fast riser or the more established highly-rated player being given precedence per se.